Proof cheat sheet
Reading the charts, year-by-year modal, and tax notes.
The Proof view shows the simulation result. Read it from the top down: success rate first, then chart shape, then year-by-year drill-downs when something looks off.
Top-level read
Main chart: by default, this opens on the Portfolio Min / Max / Mean summary view in today's dollars.
What the default chart means: it overlays many historical cycles into percentile bands, so you can see the typical path (middle lines) and the spread between better and worse outcomes each year.
How to read it: the center line is the typical outcome, the surrounding percentile bands show uncertainty, and optional min / max outliers show extreme tails.
Success rate: percent of cycles that do not deplete.
Statistics summary: average, median, high, and low outcomes for portfolio, spending, and taxes.
Chart controls
Metric
Portfolio or Spending.
Chart type
- Min / Max / Mean. Percentile summary across all cycles for each year. Best for understanding range and consistency over time.
- Time Series. Draws all cycles as separate shifted lines. Best for seeing each historical path on the same chart.
- Individual Cycles. One cycle at a time, selected with the cycle slider. Best for deep-diving a specific historical sequence.
- Spending vs Returns. Compares average annual spending and average annual returns. Best for checking whether withdrawals and market support are aligned over time.
Outliers
In Min / Max / Mean, toggles visibility of extreme Min / Max lines that can visually skew the range.
Cycle slider
Appears in Individual Cycles and Year-by-Year analysis to select a specific historical start period.
Year-by-Year modal
Cycle slider: picks which historical return sequence is being replayed (the UI shows its historical data start year).
Simulation Year slider: picks which year inside that selected cycle you are inspecting.
Account Changes: Starting / ending balances by account with drill-down details about deposits, withdrawals, taxes, and rebalancing actions for that year.
Events: Income, withdrawals, taxes, and adjustments for that year.
Cash Flow card
Above the events list, the Cash Flow card summarizes every dollar that came in and went out that year. In today's dollars, so successive years stay comparable. A toggle in the header lets you switch between two views; both read from the same numbers.
Table view
Two columns side-by-side:
- Sources (Total In): Net Job Cash, Other Income (Pension, Social Security, side hustle, etc.), Rental Cash Flow, Dividends Used (capped at the spending need so pre-retirement years don't over-credit), and Withdrawals from any account.
- Uses (Total Out): Base Spending, Extra Spending (one-off adjustments like Vacation, ACA Healthcare, etc.), Discretionary Spending (only in Spend mode - see below), Real Estate (mortgage / property tax / insurance / maintenance), Taxes (or "Taxes Not Withheld" when payroll already covered some), Contributions to retirement accounts, and Surplus Deposited (anything left over swept into a non-retirement account).
Total In should equal Total Out. If they're off, look at the Surplus Deposited line. That's where the simulation puts excess cash (RMD overflow, dividend spillover, bracket-fill overshoot, ACA reconciliation refunds).
Discretionary Spending only appears when the Cash Flow tab's Save-vs-Spend selector is set to Spend excess cashflow. It captures any surplus left over after the user's Cash Flow Priorities run - cash the simulation drops rather than reinvesting. In Save mode (the default) this row is hidden and the same dollars show up under Surplus Deposited instead.
Sankey view
The Sankey chart visualizes the same totals as a flow diagram: every income source on the left feeds into a central After-Tax Cash node, which then fans out to the spending uses on the right. Band thickness is proportional to dollar amount, so the dominant cash flows of the year are immediately visible.
- Green bands are inflows, contributions, and surplus deposited back into accounts.
- Red bands are withdrawals, taxes, and all expense categories (Base Spending, Extra Spending, Real Estate, and - in Spend mode - Discretionary).
- Emerald is rental cash flow; sky blue is dividend income that covered spending.
Hover any band for the source → destination amount and the percentage of total inflows it represents. Tiny residuals under $10 (real) are hidden so floating-point drift doesn't surface as a phantom Surplus.
Open button (Pro): the small expand button on the Sankey card pops the chart into a fullscreen modal with a more detailed 5-column layout. Per-job, per-income-source, and per-account-withdrawal sources on the left; per-adjustment, per-account-deposit sinks on the right; and Cycle / Simulation Year sliders so you can scrub years without leaving the chart.
Tax notes
- Filing logic: one person uses single-filer assumptions; two people uses married-jointly assumptions.
- Inflation: tax brackets are inflation-adjusted in the model.
- Source breakdown: in the Events list, the Taxes section's Federal Income, Long-term Capital Gains, and State Income lines expand to show how that tax is split across the income sources that drove it. The dollar figure is the tax attributed to each source; hover a row to see the underlying taxable income. (Because brackets are progressive, the per-source split is a proportional estimate, but the rows always add up to the line total.)
- Interpretation tip: compare total taxes vs spending across low-end cycles.
Mini view
With Minimalist view turned on in your user settings, the Proof page swaps the full scrolling layout for a condensed dashboard: a three-chip headline band (success rate, median ending portfolio, top diagnostic) above a grid of eight question-labeled cards. Each card shows a tiny in-card summary; clicking Open either expands the full surface inline (chart + controls, allocation tree, bracket bar, events panel) or opens the same modal/drawer the full view uses (year-by-year detail, What-If, Plan Diagnostics).
Nothing is removed — every data surface in the full view is still reachable in mini view via one click. The same Minimalist toggle in user settings controls both the inputs page and the Proof page; flipping it off restores the original layout with no other changes.
- Headline chips: overall success-rate %, median ending portfolio in today's dollars, and the highest-severity diagnostic count (or "✓ All clear"). Clicking the diagnostic chip opens the Plan Diagnostics drawer.
- The eight cards (top→bottom, left→right): Will I make it?, How does the portfolio behave?, What happens in a typical year?, Where does my money sit?, Taxes & brackets, Cash flow, What if…?, Plan health.
- Demo mode: the What-If card is disabled in demo mode (matches the full view's What-If gating).
Related
For sim-specific issues, open Plan Diagnostics from the Proof view. For everything else, reach out to support.